The pound has dropped to its lowest value against the US dollar in since November 2023, falling below $1.23.
This is happening because UK government borrowing costs are increasing.
When the government borrows money by issuing bonds (gilts), the interest it pays on those is called the yield.
The yields on government bonds have continued to rise in recent days.
For example, the yield on 10-year gilts is up eight basis points to 4.89%, which is the highest since August 2023.
Meanwhile, the cost of longer-term borrowing has also continued to rise, with the yield of 30-year gilts at their highest level since 1998.
They were up around three basis points to a peak of 5.39% this morning.
This means government borrowing costs are at the highest level since August 2023, when markets were worried about sky-high inflation.
The rise in gilt yields has an inverse effect on the price of these government bonds, which are falling as a result, with some saying the current market woes echo those seen in the fallout from the disastrous mini-budget of former prime minister Liz truss in 2022.
Economists have warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves could be forced into further tax hikes or cuts to spending plans to meet UK fiscal rules after the jump in government borrowing costs.
The rise in the cost of servicing government debts could cut into Labour’s expected financial headroom in a potentially worrying sign of how investors see fiscal sustainability in the UK.
The gilt rout has been sparked by investor worries over rising government borrowing and the mounting threat of so-called stagflation, where the economy sees rising inflation combined with stalling growth.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said while still under pressure, the pace of the “relentless” bond sell-off had eased on Thursday.
What are gilts?
GOVERNMENT bonds, or gilts, are seen as the telltale sign of global investors’ opinion on the health of the UK economy and its leadership.
They also shape investors’ views on whether a Budget has been a success or failure.
Gilts are issued by the Government as parcels of debt that pay out a return — or coupon — to investors over a fixed term, such as five, 10 or 30 years.
The yield reflects the amount of interest paid, and increases when the price of a bond falls to reward the investor for the risk of holding a cheaper asset.
Yields increase when the price of a bond falls because investors want bigger returns for owning a riskier asset.
But she stressed the pound’s reaction shows ongoing concerns in the market.
She said: “The UK’s fiscal position continues to look perilous.
“The Chancellor is expected to make a speech in the coming days, where she may focus on public sector spending cuts rather than further tax increases to meet her fiscal rules.
“However, the rhetoric from the Labour government is one reason we are in this mess in the first place, and there are no guarantees that Reeves will be able to calm the market.”
After the autumn Budget, Ms Reeves was left with only £9.9 billion of headroom to meet her revised fiscal rules. This came despite a £40 billion package of tax increases to fuel higher spending.
Higher debt interest costs may mean the Chancellor would need to trim spending plans or bring in more revenue than expected to meet the fiscal rules.
The Chancellor committed last year to having only one fiscal tax-changing event a year, which is expected in the autumn, leaving many to expect that she will opt to rein in spending plans in her March fiscal statement.
What does this mean for my money?
A fall in the value of sterling is bad news for holidaymakers, who will find they get less travel money at the Foreign Exchange.
If the value of the pound versus the dollar is $1.30/£1 then for every £100 you change up, you get £130 dollars.
If the pound to dollar exchange rate drops to $1.23/£1 then you’ll only get $123 for £100 holiday spending money.
That means buying anything abroad seems more expensive and can impact what you can afford to do on your holiday.
You can take some steps to make your travel money go further.
Ordering your cash online in advance will help avoid a last-minute rush at the airport, where the exchange rates are typically much worse.
TravelMoneyMax at moneysavingexpert.com can help you compare rates from different bureaux de change.
Overseas spending cards mean you don’t have to worry about carrying wads of cash, too.
A weaker pound can also impact the value of your pension or any investments you might have.
This is because if you hold shares in a company based overseas, their value is affected by currency movements.
If you notice a dip in the value of your investments, it’s best not to panic or be tempted to sell.
Elevated inflation rates, which rise above the Bank of England‘s 2% target, could deter it from reducing interest rates in the near future.
This could be painful for mortgage holders waiting to remortgage, hoping for sooner rate cuts.
Why does inflation matter?
INFLATION is a measure of the cost of living. It looks at how much the price of goods, such as food or televisions, and services, such as haircuts or train tickets, has changed over time.
Usually people measure inflation by comparing the cost of things today with how much they cost a year ago. The average increase in prices is known as the inflation rate.
The government sets an inflation target of 2%.
If inflation is too high or it moves around a lot, the Bank of England says it is hard for businesses to set the right prices and for people to plan their spending.
High inflation rates also means people are having to spend more, while savings are likely to be eroded as the cost of goods is more than the interest we’re earning.
Low inflation, on the other hand, means lower prices and a greater likelihood of interest rates on savings beating the inflation rate.
But if inflation is too low some people may put off spending because they expect prices to fall. And if everybody reduced their spending then companies could fail and people might lose their jobs.
See our UK inflation guide and our Is low inflation good? guide for more information.
