As MLB’s free-agent market heats up, the focus on starting pitchers has been intense, with Corbin Burnes widely considered the top arm available. Many insiders expect Burnes to sign a deal exceeding $200 million, but Max Fried—another highly sought-after pitcher—appears to be heading toward a slightly smaller payday. Despite not commanding the same astronomical price tag, Fried’s consistent track record and postseason success make him a top target for teams needing rotation stability.
Burnes is likely to break the $200 million barrier, thanks to his Cy Young pedigree and league-leading metrics. However, Fried brings a different appeal to the table. Over his career, Fried boasts a 73-36 record, a 3.07 ERA, and a 140 ERA+, showcasing consistency and resilience. His postseason experience, including key performances in Atlanta’s 2021 World Series run, adds to his value.
Yet Fried’s market is shaped by slightly different factors. At 31 years old when the 2025 season begins, Fried is a year older than Carlos Rodón was when he signed a six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees. Aaron Nola, also entering free agency at 31, secured a seven-year, $172 million contract with the Phillies. Comparatively, Fried’s next deal is projected to fall within the five- or six-year range, with an average annual value between $25 million and $28 million.
Max Fried, Corbin Burnes looking to get paid this offseason
One reason Fried may not command Burnes-level dollars is his durability. While Fried has been a consistent performer, he has only surpassed 170 innings twice in his career, including in 2024, when he logged 174 1/3 innings with a solid 3.25 ERA. Injuries have cropped up throughout his career, including Tommy John surgery early on, though he has generally avoided long-term setbacks in recent years.
Moreover, some of Fried’s advanced metrics in 2024 could give teams pause. His 8% walk rate was his highest since 2020, and his whiff rate dropped to 24.1%, the lowest since his rookie season in 2017. Additionally, his 34.6% hard-hit rate, while still in the league’s top 20%, was his highest since 2019.
Despite these concerns, Fried’s profile will attract plenty of suitors. Teams like the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Giants are expected to be aggressive, looking to bolster their rotations with a proven lefty. The Mets and Orioles, both with significant gaps to fill, may also be in the mix, while Fried’s connection to his hometown of Los Angeles makes the Dodgers a particularly intriguing option.
The Braves have locked up several key players in recent years, but they allowed Fried to reach free agency and seem unlikely to offer him a long-term extension. As such, Fried is likely to find a new home in 2025.
Fried’s expected deal in the $125-$168 million range reflects his value as a consistent top-tier starter, even if he doesn’t match the financial ceiling set by Burnes. His combination of playoff experience, leadership, and reliability will make him a prized addition for any rotation, providing the perfect blend of stability and upside. While he won’t redefine the free-agent pitching market, Fried will undoubtedly land a contract worthy of his impressive career to date.
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