When No. 5 Indiana heads to Columbus in Week 13 to face No. 2 Ohio State, it will be the biggest matchup in Hoosiers football history. Not only are Big Ten Championship implications on the line for both teams, but so are College Football Playoff hopes. It’s truly a season of firsts for the Indiana program.
The Hoosiers’ schedule can be endlessly debated and ridiculed by fans and pundits, but one thing cannot be denied, which is the impressive mark Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) has made this season. No one expected them to reach this point. After all, this is a program with the most losses in FBS history (713) but have yet to suffer a single one this year. It took them 56 years to achieve their best record in school history.
Week 13 is where Indiana gets its chance to prove itself against the Buckeyes. In stark contrast, Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) is one of the most successful programs in FBS history. Top-five matchups are familiar territory for the Buckeyes, who are perennial College Football Playoff contenders.
Given those dynamics, it’s not surprising that Indiana has been given just a 26.8% chance of beating Ohio State, according to ESPN analytics. But with the way this college football season has unfolded, nothing is off the table. Let’s dive into our bold predictions for Indiana as it faces Ohio State in Week 13.
Indiana defense sacks Will Howard four times
One of the biggest question marks for this year’s Ohio State team, out of all its talented roster, came from how well the offensive line would perform throughout the season. So far, that unit has mostly answered, allowing quarterback Will Howard to only be sacked nine times this season and 12 sacks total. However, with the Buckeyes now losing one of their most important offensive line pieces in center Seth McLaughlin, that could change things.
McLaughlin reportedly tore his Achilles in practice on Tuesday and is done for the season. He’s now the second starter on the offensive line to be sidelined this season for Ohio State, making the matchup against Indiana and their seventh-ranked scoring defense potentially problematic. The Hoosiers are also 10th in the country in team sacks with 31.
Howard has only suffered multiple sacks in a game twice this season, with the most coming against Penn State (3). This will definitely be an area of the game to watch out for now due to the depth concerns on the Buckeyes’ offensive line.
Kurtis Rourke throws for just over 260 yards and two touchdowns
For Indiana to stay competitive against Ohio State, quarterback Kurtis Rourke will need to deliver his best performance of the season. The challenge is steep, as he’ll face one of the nation’s top passing defenses on Saturday. The Buckeyes have allowed just one 200-yard passer and one 300-yard passer this season, holding all other opponents to 155 passing yards or fewer. They’ve also given up only four passing touchdowns all year.
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti doesn’t typically rely on Rourke to air it out excessively. The quarterback is averaging 17.1 completions and 241 yards per game, though he has had two 300-yard outings this season—against Maryland (359) and Northwestern (380).
While ESPN’s Joey Galloway suggested Cignetti should consider sitting Rourke, the Hoosiers need their signal caller on the field—and at his absolute best. Rourke could become just the second quarterback this season to throw for at least two touchdowns against the Buckeyes, a feat only Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has accomplished so far.
Indiana out rushes Ohio State
When these two teams clash in Week 13, two of the nation’s best rushing defenses will take center stage. Indiana’s defense ranks first in the country, allowing opponents just 722 total rushing yards, eight touchdowns, an average of 2.46 yards per carry, and 72.2 yards per game. Ohio State isn’t far behind, ranked fourth with 907 total yards allowed, six rushing touchdowns, 2.79 yards per carry, and 90.7 yards per game.
So, which team will win the ground battle? Logic might lean toward Ohio State, given the duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, two of the most dynamic backs in college football. However, Indiana’s tandem of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawson, who have combined for 18 rushing touchdowns, makes it hard to rule out the Hoosiers.
Head coach Curt Cignetti’s rushing attack has been the backbone of Indiana’s offense this season, scoring on the ground in all but one game—their recent matchup against Michigan. Otherwise, the Hoosiers have consistently punched in at least two rushing touchdowns per game while averaging 176.7 yards per contest, ranking 47th nationally. The Buckeyes, slightly ahead at No. 40, average 183.7 rushing yards per game.
When it comes down to it, we’ll still give the edge to the Hoosiers to win the rushing battle in this marquee matchup.
Indiana beats Ohio State on a fourth quarter field goal
Only once this season has Indiana been in a close contest, and that came against Michigan in their last game. The Hoosiers won 20-15, scoring their lowest point total of the season. Six of those points came off the leg of redshirt freshman kicker Nicolas Radicic.
It was just the second time this season Indiana asked Radicic to kick more than one field goal in a game, the first being against Northwestern. With Indiana’s offense firing on all cylinders for most of the season, Radicic has primarily been tasked with converting extra points. He’s attempted only eight field goals all year.
Both of his makes against Michigan were from beyond 40 yards, his only attempts from that range this season. Radicic has been perfect on extra points and field goals throughout the year. For Indiana’s sake, they’ll hope he stays perfect again, as this kind of game could easily come down to a last-second kick.
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