With Week 11 of the NFL now in the books, the AFC playoff picture is starting to round out as the season progresses.
Much like the NFC playoff race, there wasn’t much movement at the top of the conference standings. Even with the Buffalo Bills’ massive win over the Kansas City Chiefs to end their perfect season, the Chiefs remained atop the AFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers also held firm at the No. 3 seed after a critical division win over the Baltimore Ravens. However, Baltimore did take a hit in the standings.
Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers avoided “Chargering” and handed Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals another heartbreaking loss in a thriller, further damaging the Bengals’ playoff hopes. On the rise are the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos, both of whom earned significant wins in Week 11 to keep their postseason aspirations alive.
Like last week, we’ll not only look at the current seven seeded teams but also those on the bubble. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated AFC playoff picture after Week 11’s games.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, 1st in AFC West)
Nine games into a season mostly full of nail-biters, it finally caught up with the Chiefs in Week 11 against a familiar foe in the Bills. Granted, it’s not unusual for the Bills to overcome Kansas City in the regular season—the postseason has been their stumbling block. Despite the loss, the Chiefs still hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2, 1st in AFC East)
The Bills are not out of contention to snag the No. 1 seed from the Chiefs. With six games remaining and the way Josh Allen is playing, he could lead Buffalo past Kansas City if the Chiefs begin to tack on more losses. The win over the Chiefs gave them their sixth consecutive victory. Some of their notable matchups ahead are against the 49ers in Week 12, followed by back-to-back road games against the Rams and Lions.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2, 1st in AFC North)
The Steelers have now won five straight and continue to establish themselves as one of the best teams in the AFC this season following their victory over division rival Ravens. Pittsburgh continues to dominate Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, winning seven of their last eight matchups. How the Steelers handle a tough schedule ahead—including a rematch with the Ravens and matchups against the Bengals (twice), Eagles, and Chiefs—will be intriguing to watch.
4. Houston Texans (6-4, 1st in AFC South)
The Texans were not in AFC competition in Week 11, but they faced an in-state matchup against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Much like the pieces of the roof falling off before the game—a symbolic reflection of the Cowboys’ season—Houston capitalized on their struggles. After losing two straight, the Texans avoided another setback and instead dominated Dallas with a 24-point primetime victory.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, 2nd in AFC West)
The new-look Chargers under Jim Harbaugh are exactly that—a team unlike any Chargers squad in recent memory. They demonstrated their resilience by outlasting the Bengals on Sunday night in Week 11. With the victory and the Ravens’ loss, they climbed to the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4, 2nd in AFC North)
The Ravens remain one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL. With Lamar Jackson, arguably the league’s MVP front-runner, leading the top-ranked offense, they have plenty of firepower. Yet, they still find themselves trailing in their own division and suffered another setback in pursuit of that goal with their Week 11 loss to the Steelers.
7. Denver Broncos (6-5, 3rd in AFC West)
Last week, the Broncos held onto the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff race with a 5-5 record. After their demolishing of the Falcons, they’re back in the win column following two straight losses. Bo Nix has continued to improve as the season progresses, delivering a career performance against Atlanta. Aside from their upcoming road game against the Raiders and a home matchup with the Browns, Denver’s final four games are all against teams currently in the AFC playoff race.
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-6, 2nd in AFC South)
The first team on the bubble remains the Colts, who managed to edge out the New York Jets in Week 11, further diminishing the Jets’ playoff hopes. Indianapolis benefited from the return of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, who made an immediate impact. Richardson’s late-game touchdown run–one of his three total scores–proved to be the difference. The Colts aren’t out of the AFC playoff race just yet.
9. Miami Dolphins (4-6, 2nd AFC East)
Since Tua Tagovailoa’s return, the Dolphins have looked like a much-improved team. While they are 2-2 since his comeback, both losses were decided by a combined total of just four points. With seven games left on their schedule, five are against teams with losing records, giving Miami a legitimate chance to make a late-season push. The Dolphins could very easily sneak back into the AFC playoff picture, capturing one of the seven seeds.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7, 3rd in AFC North)
Poor Joe Burrow and the Bengals. They’ve now dropped three of their last four games, with their last two losses coming after blowing second-half leads. Burrow continues to rewrite history for all the wrong reasons. He’s the only quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 300 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in back-to-back games and still lose both in regulation, according to OptaSTATS. Absolutely brutal. For Cincinnati to have any hope of securing one of the top seven seeds in the AFC, they’ll likely need to win out.
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