4 reasons Bo Nix is Rookie of the Year frontrunner over Jayden Daniels

The 2024 NFL Draft was filled with top quarterback prospects expected to change the trajectory of the teams that selected them. After 11 weeks of NFL play, two of those quarterbacks have done just that in Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels and Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix. Both are strong contenders for the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award.

Daniels took an early commanding (no pun intended) lead in the OROY race after Week 2. Washington rattled off four straight wins and claimed victory in seven of their first nine games. However, the Commanders have since hit a two-game skid.

Nix, on the other hand, started slower, as is common for rookies, but has taken off over the last several games. The Broncos opened the season 0-2 but have since won six of their last nine games. After Nix’s career day in a blowout win over the Falcons in Week 11, many are believing the Denver signal-caller could be poised to steal the OROY award from Daniels (or better). And who’s to say they’re wrong?

First, let’s compare the two rookie quarterback’s season stats.

Bo Nix has played better recently compared to Jayden Daniels

Over their last four games, both Nix and Daniels have gone 2-2, each suffering losses to top-tier playoff contenders. However, Daniels’ production has dipped slightly since he suffered a rib injury about a month ago against the Panthers. Before that game, Washington’s offense averaged 31.1 points per game. Over the last four games, that number has dropped to 22.5—a nearly 10-point difference.

Have defenses gotten tougher? Absolutely. Washington’s last two games were against the Eagles and Steelers, both top-five scoring defenses, and Week 8 saw them face the seventh-ranked Bears defense. While Daniels hasn’t been terrible, his completion percentage fell to 55% or lower in two of those games, throwing four touchdowns and one interception during that stretch.

Nix, meanwhile, has been giving Daniels a serious challenge for the OROY award as he’s progressively gotten better. Accuracy, his calling card coming out of Oregon, has been on full display. Aside from the Ravens game in Week 9, Nix has completed at least 73% of his passes in his last four outings, including nearly 85% against the Falcons in Week 11. During this span, he’s accounted for 10 total touchdowns and thrown just one interception.

Bo Nix has the better play-caller, developer in Sean Payton

Give credit to Commanders head coach Dan Quinn for hiring Kliff Kingsbury, a proven offensive mind. However, Kingsbury’s offenses often start hot before cooling off as opponents adjust, as The Athletic noted. Conversely, Broncos head coach Sean Payton, one of the best play-callers in NFL history, has taken a methodical approach with Nix, slowly expanding his responsibilities as the season goes on.

Payton’s process appears to be paying off. Nix has shown steady improvement, with Denver’s offense finding its rhythm. While Daniels may currently lead the OROY race, betting on Nix’s development under Payton feels like a smart move given Payton’s historical track record with quarterbacks.

Bo Nix has less to work with than Jayden Daniels

A comparison of their supporting casts shows Daniels has far more weapons at his disposal. Washington boasts a strong backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, who average 4.5 and 5.1 yards per carry, respectively. Terry McLaurin, a true WR1, ranks seventh in receiving yards (721) and fourth in touchdowns (6). The Commanders also have veteran tight end Zach Ertz. While Washington could use another wideout, their offensive arsenal is enviable to a team like the Broncos.

Denver, by contrast, lacks a true leading rusher and ranks 20th in rushing yards per game (116) and has just eight rushing touchdowns on the season. Nix himself is second on the team in rushing with 295 yards and leads the Broncos with four rushing touchdowns. Outside of Courtland Sutton, who has three touchdown receptions, the Broncos lack playmakers.

Unlike the Commanders, who entered the offseason with the largest amount of cap space, Denver’s financial constraints due to Russell Wilson’s contract, limited their ability to bolster the roster this offseason. That’s why it’s important to remember that as this OROY race moves forward, Nix’s ability to produce with far less talent around him than Daniels should be given more notice.

If Bo Nix leads Broncos to playoffs, he should win Rookie of the Year

The defining factor in the OROY race may ultimately be whether either quarterback leads their team to the playoffs. Both Washington and Denver currently hold wild-card spots in their respective conferences. For the Commanders, it would mark their first playoff appearance since 2020. For the Broncos, it would end a nine-year drought dating back to their Super Bowl 50 victory in 2015.

Not since that championship season have the Broncos finished better than second in the AFC West, spending most years in the division cellar. If Nix continues his upward trajectory and guides Denver to the postseason, overcoming a less-talented roster and the weight of nearly a decade of futility, it could make him the favorite to claim the OROY award.

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